Every day, the majority of baseball bettors will check the stats, look at the win/lose record, see who’s pitching, or use some other method of handicapping baseball, but is it worth it? It’s a fact that the majority of these bettors will lose every single day and here’s why…

Everyone handicapping baseball takes into account who’s on the mound. Pitching is the one common denominator that both sportsbooks and bettors check. Sportsbooks adjust the line depending on who’s pitching. Bettors put who’s pitching into their handicapping equation.

If everyone else is making adjustments for pitching – do I need to?

Baseball is the only sport that you can have a win ratio of 60% and still lose your bankroll. Hard to believe, but then massive odds you need to lay when only betting on favorites can totally wipe you out.

The best teams in baseball rarely finish a season with a win rate greater than 60%. The worst teams in baseball often fall below 40%. Despite the differences in win/lose ratios; there is not that much difference in talent between any two teams. That means that on any given day, the worst game can (and does) beat the best team.

With so little difference between the two teams – why pick any “single” game to beat on?

Baseball games are scheduled with two teams meeting each other for a series of three games. One of the easiest plays in handicapping baseball is to find a series were the odds are in your favor and bet on the underdog team to win one of the three games in the matchup.

It’s extremely rare for one team to sweep the other in a series. The underdog team typically wins at least one of the three games. Historically, the favorite team has swept the series matchups just over 17% of the time. That means the underdog team has just under an 83% chance of winning at least one of the games.

If you look for series matchups and factor in other baseball handicapping criteria (like pitching), you could increase your win ratio even higher. And, if you only bet on baseball matchups where the odds are in your favor – you could increase your bankroll too.

Don’t use any betting schemes like a “Martindale” system – you don’t need to. Keep your handicapping system simple based on solid factors, watch the odds, and you will have a profitable season.

If you enjoy the action of betting on baseball but don’t have the time or knowledge to handicap baseball yourself, consider Las Vegas Sports Insider’s baseball handicapping service. We offer a monthly baseball handicapping subscription at a very affordable price. The subscription includes all of our baseball predictions. There are no “Up-sells.”We don’t believe in “Locks of the Year,” “Guaranteed Wins or any of the other BS you’ve probably experienced by our competition. Your monthly subscription includes every baseball pick that we make for the entire season.

We value your belief in us and hope that you will join us for another winning season of baseball predictions. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact us and if you want to subscribe – we look forward to working with you. Together we can be a success.

Finding the right handicapping approach for betting baseball is the difference between having a profitable season versus a losing one. If you find the right approach, you will find that betting Major League Baseball is considerably more profitable than betting on NFL or NBA. One of the unique advantages that baseball betting offers is underdog betting. You can have a win rate of just 40 – 45% and still make a profit during the season compared with 52.5% for the NFL or NBA.

Wagering on underdog teams will pay larger odds while limiting your initial wager investment. It won’t take many wins to post a profitable season.

Another profit zone is to wager on a series between two teams. Most baseball matchups are played over a 3 or 4 game series. You could analyze baseball matchups to find which series offer the most potential with the least risk.

One of the easiest traps beginning baseball bettors make is to bet on favorites. Typically, these teams have very low payouts versus a high betting risk which makes them unattractive wagers. When these teams lose, the average bettor is out of luck and when they win, they payouts are so low it does not compensate for the risk the bettor took. A beginning bettor could have a very high win rate but still have a money losing season because of these high odd favorites.

There are many different approaches the average baseball bettor can use to make selections, but one of the most profitable is to find an underdog in a series which you can bet with low risk. With so many games played during a season, the average baseball bettor has to be careful which games are bet. You need to analyze the risk versus the reward for each game and series you are considering. As I said in previous baseball handicapping article, you need to develop a baseball handicapping system because betting strictly on favorite teams or on public opinion is the quickest way to lose your bankroll.

Betting baseball can be a fun and rewarding hobby if you take the time to develop a system. The system does not need to be elaborate or fancy, just some common sense “rules” that you apply to any given baseball match-up. Keep it simple, and use it for every game you are considering. If you don’t develop a system (or use someone else’s) you will have a difficult time putting together a winning baseball season.

Finding the profit zone is not always an easy task, but if you analyze every game and match-up, using your system, you will have a bigger advantage in finding those profitable games than the general public.

If you looking for a winning baseball handicapping service, Las Vegas Sports Insider makes it easy for you. We offer one monthly baseball handicapping service subscription at a great low price that includes all of our baseball prediction. We don’t believe in “Locks of the Year,” “Guaranteed Wins or any of the other BS you’ve probably experienced by our competition. Your monthly subscription includes every baseball pick that we make for the entire 2012 MLB season. Season play begins in April and continues through October.

We value your belief in us and hope that you will join us for another winning season of betting baseball. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact us and if you want to subscribe – we look forward to working with you. Together we can be a success.

In order to be successful at betting on baseball, you need to understand baseball odds and your breakeven point on any given wager. Just because your hometown team is playing at home field and are considered the favorite to win the match doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best choice to risk your money. Beginning sports bettors fall into this trap all of the time…

Let me give you an example: Milwaukee is playing at home against Houston. Milwaukee is the favorite and the line or odds are set at -200 Milwaukee if you bet on the Brewers to win. Seems like a reasonable bet until you look a little closer. The Brewers may be having a winning season going 25-17 overall but are playing poorly at home going 5-10 or .50%. Does -200 sound so good now? Not if you consider that a -200 wager needs to win 66.67% of the time to just to break even. In this scenario, the Brewers are a losing proposition, and we haven’t taken in to consideration if the road team is better than the home team.

How do you determine if a team is a favorite?

First, let’s define what a favorite is – a favorite is any team with a negative point spread. The negative spread will look like -105, -110, -115, etc. They have this negative number because the sports books needs to offset the odds to balance their betting pool.

So how do you calculate breakeven percents using baseball odds?

This is a very simple equation using addition, subtraction, and division… To calculate breakeven points for dogs is very simple:

Divide 100 by the Spread + 100 or 100/(spread + 100)

Remember, in math, the equation in the parenthesis is completed first so you would need to add the spread + 100 before dividing by 100. Example: If the dog team is listed with +140 odds, then the equation would be 100/(140+100) or 100/240 which equals 41.67%. This is the winning percentage that this dog team will need to win in order to break even.

Let’s try another one. The dog team is listed with -180, so your formula would be 100/(180+100) which equals 35.71. Did you get the same number? Simple, isn’t it.

Now let’s try one with a favorite. Favorites are a little trickier because the odds are listed as negative numbers. For these, you will need to subtract 100 from the spread, not add it, and then add 1 to you end result. See, I told you it was trickier, but here it is in equation form:

Divide 100 by the spread – 100 + 1 or (100/(spread–100))+1

Example: If your favorite team is listed with a -120 line, then your equation would be (100/(-120–100))+1 or (100/-220)+1 or -0.45455+1 which equals 54.5%. Confused?

Let’s try one more. The favorite is listed with -160 odds, so your formula would be (100/(-160-100))+1 or (100/-260)+1 or -0.38+1 or 62%. If you were to wager on this favorite, they would need a win rate of more than 62% for your wager to look attractive. Do you see how importance it is to know the breakeven?

To help you even more, I have calculated the winning percentages you need to break even for the most common baseball lines.

List of Break Even Percentages

-240  70.6%
-235  70.1%
-230  69.7%
-225  69.2%
-220  68.8%
-215  68.3%
-210  67.7%
-205  67.2%
-200  66.7%
-195  66.1%
-190  65.5%
-185  64.9%
-180  64.3%
-175  63.6%
-170  63.0%
-165  62.3%
-160  61.5%
-155  60.8%
-150  60.0%
-145  59.2%
-140  58.3%
-135  57.4%
-130  56.5%
-125  55.6%
-120  54.5%
-115  53.5%
-110  52.4%
-105  51.2%
+100  50.0%
+105  48.8%
+110  47.6%
+115  46.5%
+120  45.5%
+125  44.4%
+130  43.5%
+135  42.6%
+140  41.7%
+145  40.8%
+150  40.0%
+155  39.2%
+160  38.5%
+165  37.7%
+170  37.0%
+175  36.4%
+180  35.7%
+185  35.1%
+190  34.5%
+195  33.9%
+200  33.3%
+205  32.8%
+210  32.3%
+215  31.7%
+220  31.3%
+225  30.8%
+230  30.3%
+235  29.9%
+240  29.4%

By now you should have a good idea why break even percentages are so important.

Betting on baseball allows the sports handicapper a unique opportunity that you can’t find in football or basketball betting… You can actually have a losing percentage season and still make money by betting baseball. For example, if you were to only bet on dog teams with -120 odds, then you only need to win 45.6% of the time to make money betting on baseball. By paying attention to baseball odds in your handicapping process you will be able to spot opportunities to wager on.

To check on your games, Las Vegas Sports Insider provides opening baseball lines from Statfox. Use the guide above and start cashing some tickets!

Good luck and happy handicapping!

 

One of the key factors that separate winning sports bettors from the losers is a proper mindset. To be successful at sports betting, you need to keep your emotions in check, following a proven plan, and understand that you will not win every game.

Nobody likes to lose, especially money but any investment does have risk. By following these five simple tips, you can minimize your risk and possible make your sports betting more profitable.

1. Develop a System or Method

The top sports handicappers have developed their own methods for deciding on which team to wager, if they wager at all. You’ll want to develop a system of your own. Your system will not only remove the emotional aspects of sports betting but provide a logical and proven platform for your sports investment decisions. The goal, obviously, is to pick more winners than losers and having your own system is the first step to successful sports betting.

2. Treat it Like a Business

Why are you sports betting? Do you just want to throw a few dollars on your favorite team to make watching the game more exciting? Well, that’s great! Go ahead, spend your money, and enjoy the game, good luck. You don’t need to read anymore… we’re done.

If you’re like me, you placing sports bets to make money – and lot’s of it. Sports betting is an investment that can be analyzed, reasoned, and the outcome predicted as easily as predicting the future return for any stock market investment. Your decisions need to be based on logic, well researched information, and on a system that has proven results.

You don’t let emotion into the equation; your decisions are based on logic. You don’t make last minute decisions to wager just because it caught your attention or you overheard it in the sports book. You do your homework before you wager dollar one. If you’re not sure about any wager – pass. It’s not like there won’t be more action later in the day or even the next day. Your goal is to consistently pick more winners than losers – thus, making you the money.

Like any investment portfolio, you will need starting capital (your bankroll) and stop losses for your investment. Make sure you are properly funded and not risking money to you will need to cover your expenses. You wouldn’t risk money day trading that you need to pay bills like car payments or mortgage – so don’t do it sports betting. Don’t even think about it.

3. Money Management is Your Friend

One of the first rules of operation for any business is to create a budget. Sports betting is no different. To be a successful sports bettor, you need to develop a budget and stick to it. Cash flow or money management is the single most important aspect of winning sports bets.

• Never bet more than you can afford.
• Determine your budget and separate that money from the rest of your money – it’s now devoted to sports betting just as if you were funding a business.
• Once you have determined your budget, determine how much you can wager on a single event or day. This amount will usually be 1-2% of your total bankroll. This limit is purposely set low to be able to ride the ups and downs of winning and losing that naturally occur with any investment risk. Just like stock picks, not every sports bet is going to be a winner.
• Be strict and follow your budget limitations.

To be successful, you need to look at the big picture. Baseball season lasts over six months and you don’t want to lose your entire bankroll by May with nothing left for the remaining season. If you can stick to your plan (and with a little luck) you will find that your bankroll has grown over the season.

4. What to Do When you Lose

You lost! Now what? Face it, you are going to lose for no explainable reason – it will happen.

One of the biggest factors that separate the winners from the losers is what they do after losing a bet. Smart bettors know that it wasn’t personal – you need to think the same way and move on with your life. If you let your emotions get into your decision making – this isn’t for you. Do something else. If you’ve given yourself a budget and you’ve stuck to it – great! You have plenty of money left in your bankroll and this will not impact you in the long run.

One of the worst things you can do is to try and win back loses after a bad beat. This is called “chasing” and it is one of the quickest ways to lose your bankroll. When you are chasing your bets, you’ve let your business plan fly out the window and you’re making your decisions on emotion. No investment is guaranteed to return a profit, but you can minimize your risk. You will never lose money you don’t wager!

5. Having the Proper Mindset

When you risk money – it creates stress. You’re stressed because you are fond of your money and don’t want anything to happen to it. That’s natural. One of the best ways to minimize this stress is to develop a plan. Just like a business, you need to develop a plan that will instruct you on what to for every scenario you are faced with. Things like sticking to your own handicapping system and not letting others tell you what to bet on, having a solid money management plan that you can STICK TO, and contingencies for other challenges that you think you face during your sports season.

With these basic business fundamentals in place, you can remove emotion and stress from your decision making process. Remaining calm and relaxed will let you concentrate on the fundamentals of sports handicapping and eliminate you from doing the wrong things for the wrong reasons.

There you have it. By treating sports handicapping like a business, developing a solid plan of attack, and developing the proper “mindset,” you can minimize the distractions and poor choices that you previously made and concentrate on picking winners just like the pros.

If you’re serious about sports betting, we recommend you check out our Las Vegas Sports Insider MLB service. We provide professional MLB handicapping and baseball predictions based on a foundation of Performance, Price, and Value . We value your belief in us and hope that you will join us for another winning season. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact us and if you want to subscribe – we look forward to working with you. Together we can be a success.